Hot Stocks for December 31, 2021 - CRSP, RIOT, PLUG, EXAS Seasonality

UPDATE: the actual performance of this trading basket, on a capital-balanced basis, was -1.66% ROC for the day.

For the Last Trading Day of December (and the year), there are many hot stocks projected to move. The StockOdds Seasonality Dashboard provides quick insights for stocks, ETFs, or other securities likely to move in a given seasonality period such as monthly, first or last trading day, mid-month or 3rd Friday (option expiration) performance. In this case, we’ll take a look at a few symbols that typically have either bullish or bearish performance on the last trading day of December.

Seasonality for The Last Trading Day of December 2021

Using the Free Seasonality Almanac, we can generate seasonality-related ideas for stocks to trade. In this case, we’ll take a look at the Last Trading Day of December, which for 2021 is Dec 31. On the first page of the dashboard, we can pick the top stocks to go long in, and the top stocks to short by taking into account both the Average % Change and Odds data. In this case, we’ll take a look at CRISPR Therapeutics, Riot Blockchain, Plug Power, and Exact Sciences Corporation.

For the last trading day of December, historically, CRSP has 60.0% Odds of going up on average by 2.34%, and RIOT has 62.5% Odds of going up on average by 1.33%. On the bearish side, historically, PLUG has 87.5% Odds of going down on average by -2.48%, and EXAS has 75.0% Odds of going down on average by -1.62%.

These numbers are drawn from the previous 8 years for RIOT, PLUG and EXAS, and previous 5 years for CRSP. This can be found by hovering your mouse over the expected performance (green and red) bars, as seen below, and looking at the number of Events.

Traders can use this information for context as to the seasonality of PLUG and EXAS which may qualify as shorts or CRSP and RIOT which may be suitable longs. Traders may want to look at additional Signals for each stock individually before entering a trade to “line up the ducks” with complimentary Odds and average performance for the same day, or even for longer and overlapping periods, based on MFI, Connors, Momentum and others.

Additional Signals can be found through the Dashboards Reports or through the WebScreener. As we near the end of the month, traders typically look at RSI and %BB values for confirming Odds and average performance.

Before taking these statistics for granted, it is important to look for factors which may have contributed to past performance. For these symbols, the latest quarterly earnings are typically released sometime in February or March (more details below). When it comes to earnings, there can be cases of “Buying the hype, selling the news,” which also contribute to their Odds and average performance on the last trading day of December.

CRSP Seasonality for December 2021

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at CRISPR Therapeutics’s performance for the entire month of December, alongside SPY for context.

Taking a look at the bottom, we can see the historical performance of SPY is very slightly negative on the last trading day of December, compared to CRSP, which outperforms the index. Also looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 bullish seasonality signals for CRSP. 

The average monthly performance of CRSP has averaged -0.67%, with a mix of positive performance from the last 5 trading days of the month, as well as negative performance mid-month, along with other time periods. This gives indication that CRSP’s trading action tends to be choppy during the month of December. This, along with looking at how CRSP is currently performing this December, can help frame intraday or swing trades for CRSP for this month.

CRSP is expected to release its latest quarterly earnings report on February 15, 2022.

RIOT Seasonality for December 2021

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Riot Blockchain’s performance for the entire month of December, alongside SPY for context.

Taking a look at the bottom chart, we can see the historical performance of RIOT significantly outperforms the SPY in many seasonality windows. Also looking in the rightmost section, we can see the top 8 bullish seasonality signals for RIOT. 

Though the monthly performance of Riot Blockchain in December has averaged +26%, we can see a significant portion of this performance typically comes from the first trading day of December, as well as mid-month. This can help frame intraday or swing trades for RIOT for the month of December, leaving most of the bullish performance for the end of the month.

RIOT’s latest quarterly earnings were released on Nov 15, 2021, and the company has not announced their next reporting date.

PLUG Seasonality for December 2021

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Plug Power’s performance for the entire month of December, alongside SPY for context.

Taking a look at the seasonality timeline at the bottom, we can see PLUG historically outperforms the in the beginning of December, and underperforms mid-month as well as the last 1-5 trading days. Looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 seasonality signals for PLUG, from bullish to bearish. Since PLUG is a potential short for December, we can refer to these signals to see the least bearish times to trade PLUG stock.

The monthly performance of Plug Power in December has averaged +3.6%, and we can see this performance primarily comes from action outside typical seasonality windows (ex. last 5 trading days, 3rd Friday options expiration, etc.). This can help frame intraday or swing trades for PLUG for other days in December.

PLUG’s latest quarterly earnings were released on Nov 9, 2021, with no date announced for the upcoming report, reducing one variable (earnings) that could affect the stock’s price during December.

EXAS Seasonality for December 2021

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Exact Sciences' performance for the entire month of December, alongside SPY for context.

Taking a look at the bottom timeline, we can see EXAS historically underperforms the SPY in most seasonality windows. Also looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 seasonality signals for EXAS, from bullish to bearish. Since EXAS is a potential short for the Last Trading Day of December, we can refer to this section to see seasonality windows that indicate more bullish performance.

Though the monthly performance of Exact Sciences in December has averaged -0.11%, we can see the last trading day has a -1.62% expectation, which indicates EXAS typically outperforms during the beginning and middle of December, until the end where it can mean-revert back to average performance. This can help frame intraday or swing trades for EXAS for the month of December.

EXAS’s is expected to release its latest quarterly earnings report on February 15, 2022. Like CRSP, this reduces the impact of earnings announcements and company performance that could affect the stock’s price during December.

Closing Thoughts

The Seasonality Almanac Dashboard uses close-to-close (CC) performance, so one looking to take these trades has a few options. One could enter positions on the second-last trading day of December and exit at the close of the last trading day of December, or enter at the Open of the last day of December if conditions are favorable. It’s worth considering, with overnight or even intraday trades, even though one has curated a high-probability trade, the market could interfere with its own agenda (that being what is most probable to occur). Most stocks tend to be impacted by larger market moves, so it is an advantage to hedge any trades in some way. Even with this in mind, why trade probability-blind, when you can trade hedged, with the Odds!

By taking a quick look at the summary numbers at the bottom of the dashboard (Positive & Negative Values by % Change, Percentage of Symbols outperforming relative to SPY), we can see that 64% of stocks in the dashboard that meet our filter criteria have a negative expectation for the last trading day this month. In addition to this, we can also see that just over half the stocks are still expected to outperform the S&P 500 ETF. This can help set the context for January 3, 2022 as well.

If you’re a trader or investor, then we highly recommend that you take our Seasonality Dashboard course. In this course, not only will you learn more about why seasonality patterns exist and how to better utilize the Seasonal Almanac Dashboard but also have access to exclusive insights from some of the world's leading traders on using probability-based approaches for trading.