Hot Stocks for June 30, 2022 - NKE, VRTX, DRI, DAL Seasonality

UPDATE: the actual performance of this trading basket, on a capital-balanced basis, was +0.62% ROC for the day.

For the Last Trading Day of June, there are many hot stocks projected to move significantly. The StockOdds Seasonality Dashboard provides quick insights for stocks, ETFs, or other securities likely to move in a given seasonality period such as monthly, first or last trading day, mid-month or 3rd Friday (option expiration) performance. In this case, we’ll take a look at a few symbols that typically have either bullish or bearish performance on the last trading day of June.

Seasonality for The Last Trading Day of June 2022

Using the Free Seasonality Almanac, we can generate seasonality-related ideas for stocks to trade. In this case, we’ll look at the Last Trading Day of June, which for this year is June 30 and falls on a Thursday before a long weekend (markets are closed July 4). On the first page of the dashboard, we can pick the top stocks to trade long and the top stocks to short by considering both the Average % Change and Odds data. In this case, we’ll look at Nike Inc, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Darden Restaurants Inc, and Delta Air Lines Inc.

For the last trading day of June, historically, NKE has 87.5 Odds of going up (which means it has moved higher on this same day 7 out of 8 years on this day), on average +3.40%, and VRTX has 87.5 Odds with average moves of +2.96%. On the bearish side, historically, DRI has 75 Odds of going down on average by -0.76%, and DAL has 75 Odds of going down on average by -0.48%.

These numbers are drawn from the previous 8 years for NKE, VRTX, DRI and DAL. This can be found by hovering your mouse over the expected performance (green and red) bars, as seen below, and looking at the number of Events.

Traders can use this information for context as to the seasonality of DRI and DAL, which may qualify as shorts, or NKE and VRTX, which may be suitable longs. Traders may want to look at additional Signals for each stock individually before entering a trade to “line up the ducks” with complimentary Odds and average performance for the same day, or even for longer and overlapping periods, based on MFI, Bollinger Bands, Momentum and others. Even better would be checking the Top 10 Odds to see if these show up in the top Odds for the day.

Additional Signals can be found through the Dashboard Reports or through the WebScreener. As we near the end of the month, traders typically look at RSI and %BB values for confirming Odds and average performance.

Before taking these statistics for granted, it is important to look for factors which may have contributed to past performance. For these hot stocks, the latest quarterly earnings are typically released sometime in late June to early August (more details below). When it comes to earnings, there can be cases of “Buying the hype, selling the news,” which also contribute to their Odds and average performance on the last trading day of June.

NKE Seasonality for June 2022

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Nike Inc's performance for the entire month of June, alongside SPY for context.

Looking at the bottom of the above screenshot, we can see the historical performance of SPY is positive on the last trading day of June, while NKE far outperforms the index. Also looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 bullish seasonality signals for NKE. 

The average monthly performance of NKE has averaged +2.5%, with most of the positive performance typically coming from the last 5-1 trading days of the month. This gives indication that NKE’s trading action is typically choppy or bearish for the first few weeks of June. Given NKE’s overall retreat off its highs, the seasonal performance, along with looking at how NKE is currently performing this June, can help frame intraday or swing trades for NKE for the month.

NKE’s latest quarterly earnings report is expected to be released on June 27, 2022, which may have an impact on NKE’s performance on June 30.

VRTX Seasonality for June 2022

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Vertex Pharmaceuticals’ performance for the entire month of June, alongside SPY for context.

Looking at the bottom Seasonality Timeline, we can see the historical performance of VRTX outperforms the SPY primarily during the last 5-1 trading days of June. Also looking in the rightmost section, we can see the top 8 bullish seasonality signals for VRTX for the month.

The monthly performance of Vertex Pharmaceuticals in June has averaged +4.2%, and we can see this typically comes from the strong positive performance for the last 5-1 trading days of the month. Given the average performance during other seasonality windows in the month, this indicates the action in VRTX can be choppy and somewhat muted the first few weeks of the month. This can all help frame intraday or swing trades for VRTX for the month of June, with positive performance expected mostly in last week of the month.

VRTX’s latest quarterly earnings report is expected to be released on Aug 4, 2022.

DRI Seasonality for June 2022

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Darden Restaurants Inc’s performance for the entire month of June, alongside SPY for context.

Looking at the seasonality timeline at the bottom, we can see DRI historically has negative performance the index during the 3^rd Friday, last 5, 3 and 1 trading days of the month. Judging by the average monthly performance of +1.88%, along with the other seasonal timeframes, DRI can be expected to be somewhat positive for the first part of June, with choppy action until negative performance for the last part of the month. This can help frame intraday or swing trades for DRI for other days in June.

Looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 seasonality signals for DRI, from bullish to bearish. Since DRI is a potential short for June, we can refer to these signals to see the least bearish times to trade DRI stock.

DRI’s latest quarterly earnings report is expected to be released on June 23, 2022.

DAL Seasonality for June 2022

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Delta Air Lines Inc’s performance for the entire month of June, alongside SPY for context.

Looking at the bottom timeline, we can see DAL historically underperforms the SPY in the last 5 and 1 trading days of June, while outperforming the index for most other seasonality windows. Given Delta Air Lines negative typical performance of -0.73% for the month as a whole, we can expect outperformance for the beginning of the month, with a reversion to the mean underperformance during the last part of June. 

DAL’s latest quarterly earnings report is expected to be released on July 13, 2022.

Closing Thoughts

The Seasonality Almanac Dashboard uses close-to-close (CC) performance, so one looking to take these trades has a few options. One could enter positions on the second-last trading day of June and exit at the close of the last trading day or enter at the Open of the last day of June if conditions are favorable. It’s worth considering, with overnight or even intraday trades, even though one has curated a high-probability trade, the market could interfere with its own agenda (that being what is most probable to occur). Most stocks tend to be impacted by larger market moves, so it is an advantage to hedge any trades in some way. Even with this in mind, why trade probability-blind when you can trade hedged, with the Odds!

By taking a quick look at the summary numbers at the bottom of the dashboard, we can see that 87% of stocks in the dashboard that meet our filter criteria have a positive expectation for the last trading day this month. In addition to this, we can also see that well over half the stocks are expected to outperform the S&P 500 ETF. This can help set the context for June as well.

If you’re a trader or investor, then we highly recommend that you take our Seasonality Dashboard course. In this course, not only will you learn more about why seasonality patterns exist and how to better utilize the Seasonal Almanac Dashboard but also have access to exclusive insights from some of the world's leading traders on using probability-based approaches for trading.