Hot Stocks for March 31, 2022 - TEAM, URI, GOLD, CCI Seasonality

UPDATE: the actual performance of this trading basket, on a capital-balanced basis, was +1.73% ROC for the day.

For the Last Trading Day of March, there are many hot stocks projected to move significantly. The StockOdds Seasonality Dashboard provides quick insights for stocks, ETFs, or other securities likely to move in a given seasonality period such as monthly, first or last trading day, mid-month or 3rd Friday (option expiration) performance. In this case, we’ll take a look at a few symbols that typically have either bullish or bearish performance on the last trading day of March.

Seasonality for The Last Trading Day of March 2022

Using the Free Seasonality Almanac, we can generate seasonality-related ideas for stocks to trade. In this case, we’ll look at the Last Trading Day of March, which for this year is March 31 and falls on a Thursday. On the first page of the dashboard, we can pick the top stocks to long and the top stocks to short by considering both the Average % Change and Odds data. In this case, we’ll look at Atlassian Corporation PLC, United Rentals, Inc, Barrick Gold Corp, and Crown Castle International Corp.

For the last trading day of March, historically, TEAM has 80 Odds of going up (which means it has moved higher on this same day 4 out of 5 years on this day), on average +2.12%, and URI has 75 Odds with average moves of +2.03%. On the bearish side, historically, GOLD has 62.5 Odds of going down on average by -1.28%, and CCI has 87.5 Odds of going down on average by -1.05%.

These numbers are drawn from the previous 8 years for URI, GOLD, CCI and previous 5 years for TEAM. This can be found by hovering your mouse over the expected performance (green and red) bars, as seen below, and looking at the number of Events.

Traders can use this information for context as to the seasonality of GOLD and CCI, which may qualify as shorts, or TEAM and URI, which may be suitable longs. Traders may want to look at additional Signals for each stock individually before entering a trade to “line up the ducks” with complimentary Odds and average performance for the same day, or even for longer and overlapping periods, based on MFI, Bollinger Bands, Momentum and others.

Additional Signals can be found through the Dashboard Reports or through the WebScreener. As we near the end of the month, traders typically look at RSI and %BB values for confirming Odds and average performance.

Before taking these statistics for granted, it is important to look for factors which may have contributed to past performance. For these symbols, the latest quarterly earnings are typically released sometime in March (more details below). When it comes to earnings, there can be cases of “Buying the hype, selling the news,” which also contribute to their Odds and average performance on the last trading day of March.

TEAM Seasonality for March 2022

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Atlassian Corporation PLC's performance for the entire month of March, alongside SPY for context.

Looking at the bottom of the above screenshot, we can see the historical performance of SPY is slightly positive on the last trading day of March compared to TEAM which far outperforms the index. Also looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 bullish seasonality signals for TEAM. 

The average monthly performance of TEAM has averaged +1.9%, with positive performance typically coming from the beginning of the month, as well as very end of the month. This gives indication that TEAM’s trading action is typically choppy or bearish for the latter half of March. This, along with looking at how TEAM is currently performing this March, can help frame intraday or swing trades for TEAM for the month.

TEAM’s latest quarterly earnings report is expected to be released on May 5, 2022.

URI Seasonality for March 2022

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at United Rentals, Inc’s performance for the entire month of March, alongside SPY for context.

Looking at the bottom Seasonality Timeline, we can see the historical performance of URI outperforms the SPY in many seasonality windows. Also looking in the rightmost section, we can see the top 8 bullish seasonality signals for URI.

The monthly performance of United Rentals, Inc in March has averaged -1.03%, and we can see many seasonality windows counteract this performance. However, given the positive average performance on the Last 1, 3 and 5 Trading Days of March, this indicates the action in URI can be choppy and bearish for most of the month. This can all help frame intraday or swing trades for URI for the month of March, with positive performance expected only at the very beginning, and last week of the month.

URI’s latest quarterly earnings report is expected to be released on April 27, 2022.

GOLD Seasonality for March 2022

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Barrick Gold Corp’s performance for the entire month of March, alongside SPY for context.

Taking a look at the seasonality Timeline at the bottom, we can see GOLD historically underperforms the index during most seasonality windows. Judging by the average monthly performance of -3.0%, this means GOLD typically trends down for the month. The seasonality timeline also gives indication of somewhat choppy action for mid-month. This can help frame intraday or swing trades for GOLD for other days in the month.

Looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 seasonality signals for GOLD, from bullish to bearish. Since GOLD is a potential short for March, we can refer to these signals to see the least bearish times to trade GOLD stock.

GOLD’s latest quarterly earnings report is expected to be released on May 4, 2022.

CCI Seasonality for March 2022

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Crown Castle International Corp’s performance for the entire month of March, alongside SPY for context.

Looking at the bottom timeline, we can see CCI historically underperforms the SPY in the last 1 and 3 trading days of March, while outperforming within the last 5 trading days of the month. This gives indication that from the last 4-5 trading days of March, CCI averages positive performance, then mean-reverts during the last 1-3 trading days of March with Bearish action. Then looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 seasonality signals for CCI, from bullish to bearish. Since CCI is a potential short for the Last Trading Day of March, we can refer to this section to see seasonality windows that indicate the least bearish performance.

Though the monthly performance of Crown Castle International Corp in March has averaged +0.52%, we can see many seasonality windows (1^st Friday, Mid-Month, 3^rd Friday, Last 3 Trading Days and Last Trading Day of the Month) have a negative expectation, which leaves few seasonality windows and other times for positive performance, giving indication CCI is fairly volatile during March. This can help frame intraday or swing trades for CCI for the month of March.

CCI is expected to release its latest quarterly earnings report on April 20, 2022.

Closing Thoughts

The Seasonality Almanac Dashboard uses close-to-close (CC) performance, so one looking to take these trades has a few options. One could enter positions on the second-last trading day of March and exit at the close of the last trading day of March or enter at the Open of the last day of March if conditions are favorable. It’s worth considering, with overnight or even intraday trades, even though one has curated a high-probability trade, the market could interfere with its own agenda (that being what is most probable to occur). Most stocks tend to be impacted by larger market moves, so it is an advantage to hedge any trades in some way. Even with this in mind, why trade probability-blind when you can trade hedged, with the Odds!

By taking a quick look at the summary numbers at the bottom of the dashboard, we can see that 63% of stocks in the dashboard that meet our filter criteria have a positive expectation for the last trading day this month. In addition to this, we can also see that over half the stocks are expected to underperform the S&P 500 ETF. This can help set the context for March as well.

If you’re a trader or investor, then we highly recommend that you take our Seasonality Dashboard course. In this course, not only will you learn more about why seasonality patterns exist and how to better utilize the Seasonal Almanac Dashboard but also have access to exclusive insights from some of the world's leading traders on using probability-based approaches for trading.