Hot Stocks for November 1, 2022 - WYNN, FSLR, EA, AMT Seasonality

UPDATE: the actual performance of this trading basket, on a capital-balanced basis, was +1.92% ROC for the day.

For the First Trading Day of November, there are many hot stocks projected to move significantly. The StockOdds Seasonality Dashboard provides quick insights for stocks, ETFs, or other securities likely to move in a given seasonality period such as monthly, first or last trading day, mid-month or 3rd Friday (option expiration) performance. In this case, we’ll look at a few symbols that typically have either bullish or bearish performance on the first trading day of November.

Seasonality for The First Trading Day of November 2022

Using the Free Seasonality Almanac for traders, we can generate seasonality-related ideas for stocks to trade. In this case, we’ll look at the First Trading Day of November, which for this year is November 1 and falls on a Tuesday. On the first page of the dashboard, we can pick the top stocks to buy long and the top stocks to short by considering both the Average % Change and Odds data. In this case, we’ll look at Wynn Resorts, Limited, First Solar, Inc, Electronic Arts Inc, and American Tower Corp.

For the first trading day of November, historically, WYNN has 87.5 Odds of going up (which means it has moved higher on this same day 7 out of 8 years on this day), on average +3.58%, and FSLR has 75.0 Odds with average moves of +3.30%. On the bearish side, historically, EA has 87.5 Odds of going down on average by -0.66%, and AMT has 62.5 Odds of going down on average by -0.48%.

These numbers are drawn from the previous 8 years for WYNN, FSLR, EA and AMT. This can be found by hovering your mouse over the expected performance (green and red) bars, as seen below, and looking at the number of Events.

Traders can use this information for context as to the seasonality of EA and AMT, which may qualify as shorts, or WYNN and FSLR, which may be suitable longs. Traders may want to look at additional Signals for each stock individually before entering a trade to “line up the ducks” with complimentary Odds and average performance for the same day, or even for longer and overlapping periods, based on MFI, Bollinger Bands, Momentum and others. Even better would be checking the Top 10 Odds to see if these show up in the top Odds for the day.

Additional Signals can be found through the Dashboard Reports or through the WebScreener. As we near the end of the month, traders typically look at RSI and %BB values for confirming Odds and average performance.

Before taking these statistics for granted, it is important to look for factors which may have contributed to past performance. For these hot stocks, the latest quarterly earnings are typically released sometime in late October to November (more details below). When it comes to earnings, there can be cases of “Buying the hype, selling the news,” which also contribute to their Odds and average performance on the first trading day of November.

WYNN Seasonality for November 2022

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Wynn Resorts, Limited's performance for the entire month of November, alongside SPY for context.

Looking at the bottom of the above screenshot, we can see the historical performance of SPY is slightly positive on the first trading day of November, compared to WYNN which far outperforms the index. Also looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 bullish seasonality signals for WYNN. 

The average monthly performance of WYNN has averaged +5.2%, with most of the positive performance typically coming from the first trading day and last 5 trading days in November. WYNN’s typical trading activity can be positive for the most seasonality windows in the month, while mean-reverting to the average performance on the 3^rd Friday, Last 3 Trading Days and other days in the month. This, along with looking at how WYNN is currently performing this November, can help frame intraday or swing trades for WYNN for the month.

WYNN’s latest quarterly earnings report is expected to be released on November 8, 2022.

FSLR Seasonality for November 2022

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at First Solar, Inc’s performance for the entire month of November, alongside SPY for context.

Looking at the bottom Seasonality Timeline, we can see the historical performance of FSLR outperforms the SPY in only a few seasonality windows, but especially on the first trading day of November. Also looking in the rightmost section, we can see the top 8 bullish seasonality signals for FSLR during the month.

The monthly performance of FSLR in November has averaged +2.3%, and we can see the first trading day, 1^st Friday and Last 5 Trading Days of the month contribute most of the typical positive performance, followed by mean-reversion during other periods of the month. This can all help frame intraday or swing trades for FSLR for the month of November, with positive performance expected at the beginning and in the middle of the month.

FSLR’s latest quarterly earnings report is expected to be released on October 27, 2022.

EA Seasonality for November 2022

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Electronic Arts Inc’s performance for the entire month of November, alongside SPY for context.

Looking at the seasonality Timeline at the bottom, we can see EA historically underperforms the index during most seasonality windows, including the first trading day in November. Given the average monthly performance of -0.1%, and historical performance during other seasonality windows, this would indicate choppy and mostly negative performance during November, with only one typical period of positive performance for the Last 3 Trading Days. This can help frame intraday or swing trades for EA for other days in the month.

Looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 seasonality signals for EA, from bullish to bearish. Since EA is a potential short for November, we can refer to these signals to see the least bearish times to trade EA stock.

EA’s latest quarterly earnings report is expected to be released on November 1, 2022, after market close. This may have an outsized impact on the trading action during that day.

AMT Seasonality for November 2022

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at American Tower Corp’s performance for the entire month of November, alongside SPY for context.

Looking at the bottom timeline, we can see AMT historically underperforms the SPY during most seasonality windows. Given the average monthly performance of -0.6%, this would indicate bearish or muted action during the most of November, with most of the bullish action usually taking place mid-month (9^th-14^th trading days). 

Looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 seasonality signals for AMT, from bullish to bearish. Since AMT is a potential short for the First Trading Day of November, we can refer to this section to see seasonality windows that indicate the least bearish performance for the rest of the month.

AMT’s latest quarterly earnings report is expected to be released on October 27, 2022.

Closing Thoughts

The Seasonality Almanac Dashboard uses close-to-close (CC) performance, so one looking to take these trades has a few options. One could enter positions at the close on the last day of October and exit at the close of the first trading day of November or enter at the Open on November 1 if conditions are favorable. It’s worth considering, with overnight or even intraday trades, even though one has curated a high-probability trade, the market could interfere with its own agenda (that being what is most probable to occur). Most stocks tend to be impacted by larger market moves, so it is an advantage to hedge any trades in some way. Even with this in mind, why trade probability-blind when you can trade hedged, with the Odds!

If trading the above stocks in a combined basket, it is worth considering all four stocks may not have much correlation, from being part of different industries and sectors.

By taking a quick look at the summary numbers at the bottom of the dashboard, we can see that 84% of stocks in the dashboard that meet our filter criteria have a positive expectation for the first trading day this month. In addition to this, we can also see that over half the stocks are expected to outperform the S&P 500 ETF on this day. This can help set the context for November 1 as well.

If you’re a trader or investor, then we highly recommend that you take our Seasonality Dashboard course. In this course, not only will you learn more about why seasonality patterns exist and how to better utilize the Seasonal Almanac Dashboard but also have access to exclusive insights from some of the world's leading traders on using probability-based approaches for trading.