Hot Stocks for November 30, 2021 - ACB, NVAX, ENPH, OSTK Seasonality

UPDATE: the actual performance of this trading basket, on a capital-balanced basis, was +2.71% ROC for the day.

For the Last Trading Day of November, there are many hot stocks projected to move. The StockOdds Seasonality Dashboard provides quick insights for stocks, ETFs, or other securities likely to move in a given seasonality period such as monthly, first or last trading day, mid-month or 3rd Friday (option expiration) performance. In this case, we’ll take a look at a few symbols that typically either have bullish or bearish performance on the last trading day of November.

Seasonality for The Last Trading Day of November 2021

Using the Free Seasonality Almanac, we can generate seasonality-related ideas for stocks to trade. In this case, we’ll take a look at the Last Trading Day of November, which for 2021 is Nov 30. On the first page of the dashboard, we can pick the top stocks to go long in, and the top stocks to short by taking into account both the Average % Change and Odds data. In this case, we’ll take a look at Aurora Cannabis Inc., Novavax, Inc., Enphase Energy, Inc., and Overstock.com, Inc. 

For the last trading day of November, historically, ACB has 83.3% Odds of going up on average by 7.21%, and NVAX has 75% Odds of going up on average by 5.9%. On the bearish side, historically, ENPH has 62.5% Odds of going down on average by -2.61%, and OSTK has 62.5% Odds of going down on average by -1.83%.

These numbers are drawn from the previous 8 years for NVAX, ENPH and OSTK, and previous 6 years for ACB. This can be found by hovering your mouse over the expected performance (green and red) bars, as seen below, and looking at the number of Events.

Traders can use this information for context as to the seasonality of ENPH and OSTK which may qualify as shorts or ACB and NVAX which may be suitable longs. Traders may want to look at additional Signals for each stock individually before entering a trade to “line up the ducks” with complimentary Odds and average performance for the same day, or even for longer and overlapping periods, based on MFI, Connors, Momentum and others.

Additional Signals can be found through the Dashboards Reports or through the WebScreener. As we near the end of the month, traders typically look at RSI and %BB values for confirming Odds and average performance.

Before taking these statistics for granted, it is important to look for factors which may have contributed to past performance. For these symbols, quarterly earnings are typically released sometime in November or beginning of December (more details below). When it comes to earnings, there can be cases of “Buying the hype, selling the news,” which also contribute to their Odds and average performance on the last trading day of November.

ACB Seasonality for November Nov 30, 2021

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Aurora Cannabis Inc.’s performance for the entire month of November, alongside SPY for context.

Taking a look at the bottom, we can see the historical performance of SPY is very slightly negative on the last trading day of November, compared to ACB, which far outperforms the index. Also looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 bullish seasonality signals for ACB. 

The average monthly performance of ACB has averaged nearly +59%, with part of this performance happening during the 1st Friday, mid-month, and last 5 trading days of November. This gives indication that most of the average performance tends to happen outside of typical seasonality windows. This, along with how ACB is currently performing for the month of November, can help frame intraday or swing trades for ACB for the month of November.

ACB’s most recent quarterly earnings report was released on Nov 9, 2021. Since then, the stock has fluctuated wildly, from nearly +18%, to about -4% (as of November 18 Close).

ACB has had a crazy life cycle, so while the performance expectation can still be up for the remainder of November, it is a different stock then when it was sky rocketing in 2017, 2018 and again in 2019. There was even a significant pop in November 2020. From 2017-2019, the whole marijuana industry acted as a catalyst, and has since compressed, not acting as much of a factor in 2020-2021.

Over time, the fundamentals of ACB have been improving, such as earnings notching up, but Aurora is still losing -4.09 per share, plus shares outstanding have increased. 

From the fundamentals to industry action, to recent volatility, ACB doesn’t fit within the “boring & beautiful” stocks, which Odds and other statistics can be more relevant for. Any trader looking to enter a position on ACB, whether for November or any other time period, should exercise caution.

NVAX Seasonality for November Nov 30, 2021

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Novavax, Inc.’s performance for the entire month of November, alongside SPY for context. 

Taking a look at the bottom chart, we can see the historical performance of NVAX significantly outperforms the SPY in many seasonality windows. Also looking in the rightmost section, we can see the top 8 bullish seasonality signals for NVAX. 

Though the monthly performance of Novavax, Inc. in November has averaged +15.7%, we can see a significant portion of this performance typically comes from the last 3-5 trading days of November, as well as the last trading day of November. This can help frame intraday or swing trades for NVAX for the month of November, leaving most of the bullish performance for the end of the month.

NVAX’s latest quarterly earnings were released on Nov 4, 2021.

ENPH Seasonality for November Nov 30, 2021

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Enphase Energy, Inc.’s performance for the entire month of November, alongside SPY for context. 

Taking a look at the seasonality timeline at the bottom, we can see ENPH historically underperforms the SPY on the last trading day of November. Also looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 seasonality signals for ENPH, from bullish to bearish. Since ENPH is a potential short for November, we can refer to these signals to see the least bearish times to trade ENPH stock. 

The monthly performance of Enphase Energy, Inc. in November has averaged +6.7%, and we can see the last 5 trading days has a positive expectation, likely with most of the bullish performance taking place on the 5th and 4th-last trading days of November. This can help frame intraday or swing trades for ENPH for other days in November.

ENPH’s latest quarterly earnings were released on Oct 26, 2021, reducing one variable that could affect the stock’s price during November.

OSTK Seasonality for November Nov 30, 2021

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Overstock.com, Inc.'s performance for the entire month of November, alongside SPY for context.

Taking a look at the bottom timeline, historically we can see OSTK significantly underperforms the SPY. Also looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top 8 seasonality signals for OSTK, from bullish to bearish. Since OSTK is a potential short for the Last Trading Day of November, we can refer to this section to see seasonality windows that indicate more bullish performance. 

Though the monthly performance of Overstock.com, Inc. in November has averaged +2.2%, we can see the last 5 trading days has a -2.54% expectation, which indicates OSTK typically outperforms during the majority of November, until the end where it can mean-revert back to average performance. This can help frame intraday or swing trades for OSTK for the month of November.

OSTK’s latest quarterly earnings were released on Oct 28, 2021. Like ENPH, this reduces the impact of earnings announcements and company performance that could affect the stock’s price during November.

Closing Thoughts

The Seasonality Almanac Dashboard uses close-to-close (CC) performance, so one looking to take these trades has a few options. One could enter positions on the second-last trading day of November and exit at the close of the last trading day of November, or enter at the Open of the last day of November if conditions are favorable. It’s worth considering, with overnight or even intraday trades, even though one has curated a high-probability trade, the market could interfere with its own agenda (that being what is most probable to occur). Most stocks tend to be impacted by larger market moves, so it is an advantage to hedge any trades in some way. Even with this in mind, why trade probability-blind, when you can trade hedged, with the Odds!

By taking a quick look at the summary numbers at the bottom of the dashboard (Positive & Negative Values by % Change, Percentage of Symbols outperforming relative to SPY), we can see that 53% of stocks in the dashboard that meet our filter criteria have a negative expectation. In addition to this, we can also see that just over half the stocks are expected to underperform the S&P 500 ETF. This can help set the context for December 1, 2021 as well.

If you’re a trader or investor, then we highly recommend that you take our Seasonality Dashboard course. In this course, not only will you learn more about why seasonality patterns exist and how to better utilize the Seasonal Almanac Dashboard but also have access to exclusive insights from some of the world's leading traders on using probability-based approaches for trading.