Hot Stocks for September 30, 2021 - RUN, TDOC, OSTK, GOLD Seasonality

UPDATE Oct 1: the actual performance of this trading basket, on a capital-balanced basis, was +2.2% ROC for the day.

Coming up on the Last Trading Day of September, there are many hot stocks projected to move. The StockOdds Seasonality Dashboard provides quick insights for stocks, ETFs, or other securities likely to move in a given time period. In this case, we’ll take a look at some symbols that typically have bullish performance and some that have bearing performance on the last trading day of September.

Seasonality for The Last Trading Day of September 2021

Using the Seasonality Almanac, we can generate ideas for stocks to trade in any month. In this case, we’ll take a look at the Last Trading Day of September, which for 2021 is Sept 30. On the first page of the dashboard, we can easily pick out the bottom and top performing stocks by taking into account both the average % change and Odds numbers. In this case, we’ll take a look at Sunrun Inc., Teladoc Health Inc., Overstock.com, and Barrick Gold Corporation. 

From this, we can see on the last trading day of September, RUN and TDOC historically have 100% Odds of going up, on average by 3.24% and 2.78, respectively. On the bearish side, OSTK and GOLD both have 75% Odds of going down, on average by -1.48% and -0.57%, respectively.

These numbers are drawn from the previous 6 years for RUN and TDOC, and the previous 8 years for OSTK and GOLD. This can be found by hovering your mouse over the expected performance (green and red) bars, as seen below.

Traders can use this information for context as to the seasonality of OSTK and GOLD which may qualify as shorts or RUN and TDOC which may be suitable longs. They may want to look at additional Signals for each stock individually before entering a trade to “line up the ducks” with complimentary Odds and average performance for the same day, or even for longer and overlapping periods.

Additional Signals can be found through the Dashboards Reports or through the WebScreener. As we near the end of the month, traders typically look at RSI and %BB values for confirming Odds and average performance.

Before taking these statistics for granted, it is important to look for factors which may have contributed to past performance. For these symbols (RUN, TDOC, OSTK, GOLD), quarterly earnings are usually released near the end of October or beginning of November. When it comes to earnings, there can be cases of “Buying the hype, selling the news,” which also contribute to their Odds and average performance on the last trading day of September.

RUN Seasonality for September 30, 2021

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Sunrun Inc.’s performance for the entire month of September, alongside SPY for context.

Taking a look at the bottom, we can see the historical performance of SPY is slightly positive on the last trading day of September, compared to RUN, which far outperforms the index. Also looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top seasonality signals for RUN. 

Though the monthly performance of Sunrun Inc. in September has averaged 2.3%, we can see most of this performance likely comes from the last 5 trading days of September, as well as the last trading day of September. This can help frame intraday or swing trades for RUN for the month of September.

 To get ideas for possible hedges for RUN, as well as direction (by looking up the ETF performance on page 2 of the Seasonality Dashboard), we can look for ETFs that have a high weighting of RUN.

RUN’s quarterly earnings is currently estimated to be announced Nov 4, 2021.

TDOC Seasonality for September 30, 2021

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Teladoc Health Inc.’s performance for the entire month of September, alongside SPY for context.

Taking a look at the bottom, we can see the historical performance of TDOC outperforms the SPY. Also looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top seasonality signals for TDOC. 

Though the monthly performance of Teladoc Health Inc. in September has averaged 3.0%, we can see a significant portion of this performance comes from the last 3 trading days of September, as well as the last trading day of September. This can help frame intraday or swing trades for TDOC for the month of September. 

To get ideas for possible hedges for TDOC, as well as direction (by looking up the ETF performance on page 2 of the Seasonality Dashboard), we can look for ETFs that have a high weighting of TDOC.

TDOC’s quarterly earnings is currently expected to be released on Oct 27, 2021.

OSTK Seasonality for September 30, 2021

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Overstock.com's performance for the entire month of September, alongside SPY for context.

Taking a look at the bottom timeline, we can see OSTK historically underperforms the SPY on the last trading day of September. Also looking in the right-hand section, we can see the ranked seasonality signals for OSTK. Since OSTK is a potential short for September, we can refer to these signals to see the least bearish times to trade Overstock.com stock. 

Though the monthly performance of Overstock.com in September has averaged -1.49%, we can see the last 5 trading days has a +1.69% expectation, with a negative move expected on the last trading day. This indicates OSTK typically mean-reverts on the last trading day, from slightly positive performance in the last 2-5 trading days of September. This can help frame intraday or swing trades for OSTK for other days in September. 

To get ideas for possible hedges for OSTK, as well as direction (by looking up the ETF performance on page 2 of the Seasonality Dashboard), we can look for ETFs that have a high weighting of OSTK.

OSTK’s quarterly earnings is currently estimated to be released on Nov 4, 2021.

GOLD Seasonality for September 30, 2021

Navigating to the second page of the Seasonality Almanac, we can take a closer look at Barrick Gold Corporation's performance for the entire month of September, alongside SPY for context.

Taking a look at the bottom, historically we can see GOLD underperforms the SPY. Also looking in the right-hand section, we can see the top seasonality signals for GOLD, from bullish to bearish. Since GOLD is a potential short for September, we can refer to the lower half of this section to see the most bearish seasonality signals. 

Though the monthly performance of Barrick Gold Corporation in September has averaged -4.3%, we can see the last trading day only has a -0.57% expectation, leaving the rest of September for GOLD to lend itself to bearish action. This can help frame intraday or swing trades for GOLD for the month of September. 

To get ideas for possible hedges for GOLD, as well as direction (by looking up the ETF performance on page 2 of the Seasonality Dashboard), we can look for ETFs that have a high weighting of GOLD.

GOLD’s quarterly earnings is currently estimated to be released on Nov 4, 2021.

Closing Thoughts

The Seasonality Almanac Dashboard uses close-to-close (CC) performance, so one looking to take these trades has a few options. One could enter positions on the second-last trading day of September and exit at the close of the last trading day of September or enter at the Open of the last day of September if conditions are favorable. Why trade probability-blind, when you can trade with the Odds!

By taking a quick look at the summary numbers at the bottom of the dashboard (Positive & Negative Values by % Change, Percentage of Symbols outperforming relative to SPY), we can see that 87% of stocks in the dashboard that meet our filter criteria have a positive expectation. In addition to this, we can also see that just over half the stocks are expected to outperform the S&P 500 ETF. This can help set the context for October 1, 2021 as well.

If you’re a trader or investor, then we highly recommend that you take our Seasonality Dashboard course. In this course, not only will you learn more about why seasonality patterns exist and how to better utilize the Seasonal Almanac Dashboard but also have access to exclusive insights from some of the world's leading traders on using probability-based approaches for trading.